College Football: Rivalry Weekend Preview

            Happy Thanksgiving! As we enter the final week of the regular season in College Football, chaos is in abundance and what we know is in drought. It gives us fans, a lot to be grateful for. That is what makes this week one of the best weeks of the sports calendar. With the expanded College Football Playoff, twelve teams will play for a chance to win a national championship. In this article I will break down everything you need to know for the final weekend of College Football and how the new format works. Below is a picture of the schedule for the College Football Playoff.

New Format: 

The old format involved four teams each year and almost always it was a strength of program criteria to get into the College Football Playoff. Four teams are not enough to determine who the best team is if you want a playoff system. Thus, the twelve-team format was born.

Here is how it works: The winners of the ACC, Big 12 Big Ten, and SEC each have automatic bids along with automatic bye in the first round of the playoffs. The best group of five (non-power conference) team in the country gains an automatic berth into the playoff. Seeds five through eight will host an opponent seeded nine through twelve in the first round of the Playoff. The winner of that game will play a conference champion who had a bye in the quarterfinal bowl game. I will break it down further as we get closer to the playoff, but in simple terms that is the new format.

The seven remaining teams who did not win their conference will have to earn their right to be in the college football playoff with wins this weekend if they do not have a shot to win their conference championship. In one of the major conferences, there is no definitive matchup for the championship weekend which leaves room for all types of chaos. Here is the College Football Bracket entering this weekend:

Conference Breakdown:

SEC: There are three teams with the possibility of reaching the SEC Championship Game. One team has already booked their spot (Georgia) for which leaves two teams to have their conference destiny all to play. Texas A&M and Texas will play each other Saturday night for the remaining spot in the SEC Championship game. Texas A&M lost to Auburn last week, which means they must win this game if they want to reach the playoffs. Texas’ only loss is to Georgia but if they lose to Texas A&M and miss the SEC Championship, they will lose the opportunity to avenge that lost and will be sweating it out, come selection Sunday. Texas A&M hosts Texas as an all-important winner take all game.

ACC – Similarly to the SEC, a team in the ACC has already cliched their ticket to the ACC Championship. That team is among one of the new members in the conference, SMU who was just in a group of five conferences a year ago. Miami and Clemson, the two teams who are fighting for that last championship game spot, play tough opponents. If Miami wins their game at Syracuse, they are in the ACC Championship. Should they lose and then Clemson will see SMU in the Championship game, and if they both lose then Miami will be in the ACC Championship game. Later in the article I will talk about who these teams’ fearsome opponents are.

Big 12: Now here is where it gets a little tricky. There are a total of nine teams that could reach the Big Twelve Championship. Yes, you read that correctly, nine. To simplify it, four teams are tied atop the conference with six wins, Colorado, Iowa State, Arizona State and BYU. If Arizona State wins, they are in the championship, if Iowa State wins at home against Kansas State they also will be in the Big Twelve Championship. If one of those two teams loses, and BYU wins, they will be in the Big Twelve Championship. If Colorado wins under the same circumstances and BYU loses, Colorado will be in the Big Twelve Championship and if both Iowa State and Arizona State lose then it will be Colorado and BYU in the Championship game.

              There are five teams tied at 5-3 and the scenarios are limitless. The teams with five wins are Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, and Kansas. With that said, I will leave the Big Twelve realm of possibilities at this, if three of the four six-win teams lose then the five-win teams will have a shot. There are so many insane tiebreaker scenarios in this conference that leaves us with the madness that we are familiar with in the month of March. This Conference exemplifies everything we love yet everything insane with College Football.

Big Ten: The Big Ten is far less complicated than the Big 12 yet still a tiny bit more complicated than the SEC and ACC. Oregon has already booked its spot into the Big Ten Championship so it is awaiting its opponent. With an Ohio State win, a rematch in Indianapolis between Ohio State’s only loss and Oregon’s best win will take place. The trouble is that Ohio State’s next opponent, Michigan, has beaten them every season since 2019. Should Ohio State fail to beat their biggest rival yet again, a Penn State win will bring them to Indianapolis and losses from both Ohio State and Penn State will see Indiana play Oregon next week.

Group of Five: Tulane and Boise State have already booked their spots in their conference championships. There will be a Conference Championship breakdown next week so don’t think I’m forgetting about the mid-majors because we love underdogs over here.

Key Games: Important games to keep track of

Washington at (1) Oregon (Sat. at 7:30 on NBC) – Washington has beaten Oregon in each of their last three games and Oregon as the last undefeated team in the country. Should be a great game and a test to see if Oregon Coach, Dan Lanning, can get over the hump.

Michigan at (2) Ohio State (Sat. at 12:00 on FOX) – Same case for Ohio State as for Oregon, haven’t beaten the team north of them since 2019 and is looking to end that dark period of Buckeyes history. Ohio State also needs this game to get into the Big Ten Championship and I would say this is the biggest test of Buckeyes coach, Ryan Day’s career thus far in terms of pressure. Michigan hasn’t had a great season as the defending national champions, but with a big win against their biggest rival all can be forgiven.

Memphis 27- 17 (17)Tulane (Today at 7:30 on ESPN) Tulane gave the ball away a total of three times in the second half to put themselves down seventeen. Memphis scored twenty unanswered points on the road and found a to chew every ounce of clock away from Tulane to put their season on life support if you can call at that. This is because Tulane has to visit Army next week for their conference championship and hope that Boise State and UNLV both suffer upsets.

24 Kansas State at 18 Iowa State (Sat. at 7:30 on FOX) – Both teams have conference championship hopes which are reachable. For the road team, Iowa State win and you are in the Conference Championship. For Kansas State, win and hope for absolute chaos. A win this week though would boost their chances for a playoff spot although without a little bit of chaos they will still be on the outside looking in.

Games of the Week:

#3 Texas at #20 Texas A&M (Sat. at 7:30 on FOX)- Hands down the game of the week. Simple as this, winner of this plays Georgia in the SEC Championship for an automatic bid and bye into the College Football Playoff. With a loss, A&M is out, but Texas is still a lock just not for the automatic bye. A&M has lost two of its last three games, but both games were on the road in the most hostile of environments. Texas has had a couple close calls against Vanderbilt and Arkansas who are the last two road opponents as this game is hosted by Texas A&M. In this game, expect the unexpected as A&M is a great home team and Texas is an unpredictable road team.

#8 Tennessee at Vanderbilt (Sat. at 12:00 on ABC) – Vanderbilt beat Alabama this season and with that win, they are bowl eligible. Though they lost to currently twenty-first (seventh at the time) ranked Missouri and third ranked Texas, both games were decided by field goals. Not including outliers, Tennessee has won by an average margin of victory, which is twenty points per game at home. On the road, they have a margin of victory across their three road games that equates to negative ten points. They will play Vanderbilt on the road this week whose only home losses are to Texas and South Carolina. With a Tennessee win they have a good chance to make the playoff, though with a loss they are completely out of the picture. I for one am a fan of Josh Heupel but he needs to step up to the task this weekend.

#15 South Carolina at #12 Clemson (Sat. at 12:00 on ESPN) Clemson wins, and they have a compelling case for a College Football berth and can play for an ACC Championship with a Miami loss. Lose to South Carolina at home and kiss those postseason chances goodbye. Same goes for South Carolina although they do not have the possibility of playing in the SEC Championship game. This is as close to a playoff game as it gets though both teams with wins will still have to sweat it out come next Sunday.

Where we are: (In parentheses is the opponent)

Locks: With a loss you are in the playoff.

#5 Notre Dame (@ USC) – USC has been far from good but took Penn State to task at home. Will be a good game, but Notre Dame has been dominant since their loss to Northern Illinois.

#1 Oregon (Washington at home) – Two losses over the next two weeks will make it a tricky situation, but I trust the best team in the country will one of its next two games. It is always a tough game against Washington, but this Oregon team has answered every question thus far.

#2 Ohio State – (Michigan at Home) Ryan Day needs to end the streak. That said, with wins against Indiana and Penn State they will be in the Playoff. Ohio State can’t lose to Michigan though and expect to win it all this year.

#3 Texas (@ #20 Texas A&M) – They either earn the bye or they have a tough first round opponent. With their strength of schedule, it’s safe to say they are a lock.

You Have One Job: You have more work to do. Don’t falter under pressure.

#4 Penn State – (Maryland at Home) Maryland is not good, and you are playing at home. I have faith in you, not let me down.

#7 Georgia – (Georgia Tech at home) Good opponent but they are playing at home. An SEC title would be nice, but with a win this weekend, their resume will get them into the playoff even without one.

#9 SMU – (Cal at home) SMU controls their own destiny and needs to win this weekend against a bad Cal team. SMU are likely to do it, but no result in this year’s college football season is a given. They are the best team in the ACC thus far, and won their conference last year which makes them battle tested.

Do not Mess it Up: Win and your chances of making it are high, but your opponent is tough. 

#6 Miami – (@ Syracuse) Tough opponent on the road, have not played a great schedule. Big test ahead, let us see if they can pass it.

#8 Tennessee – (@ Vanderbilt) Vanderbilt on the road is quite the test and Tennessee could use some chaos.

#11 Boise State – (Oregon State at Home) My faith is not high in this team, but with the Tulane they control their own destiny. They play Oregon State at home and then will play UNLV in the Mountain West Championship for a playoff berth should they win against Oregon State.

#10 Indiana – (Purdue at Home) They play the worst team in the conference at home and with a win, they will have earned (not clinched) a playoff spot. It would take more than a miracle for the Hoosiers to reach the Big Ten Championship, but with one loss their record should hold up as strong without any external chaos.

Bubble Teams: You need some help but with a win(s) your odds of getting into the playoffs are high. Either that or you have a hard road to clinch a playoff spot.

#18 Iowa State – (Kansas State at home) Need a win at home against a good Kansas State team and there is no such thing as a predicted outcome in this year’s Big Twelve.

#15 South Carolina - (@ Clemson) This is quite the test for Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks but with a win their playoff chances are more likely than not.

#12 Clemson – (South Carolina at home) They still need some help to get into the ACC Championship, but a win will go a long way towards getting into the Playoff. Currently they are the last team out of the playoff picture at rank #12.

#16 Arizona State – (@ Arizona) A win and they are in the conference championship. Arizona State needs to win their conference to be in the College Football Playoff.