B's Super Wild Card Weekend Preview: Day 1

Ladies and gentleman, we have made it. Weekend number one of the NFL Playoffs is upon us and it is full of exciting matchups. I am doing something a little different this week, dropping three different articles for each three of the days of Super Wild Card Weekend. Today we have the Cleveland Browns visiting the Houston Texans and the Miami Dolphins seeing the Kansas City Chiefs in Missouri.

Texans vs. Browns 4:30 on NBC

These teams are teams few would have predicted to have been in the playoffs. The Browns got here through amazing defense and an offense that is dependable enough to build the defense a lead they will protect. The Texans are a young team that has found a way to win a division many would have predicted them to have been last in. Both teams are quite similar in that they rely on their passing game to win games. They have quarterbacks who few would have predicted would be starting a playoff game, Joe Flacco who was signed midseason and CJ Stroud is in his first year as a quarterback. The Browns have a much better defense but they are playing on the road so the defense of the Texans will most certainly be enhanced come this afternoon.

Keys to the game:

Texans: 1) AVOID THIRD AND LONG: This is far beyond the most important of the two keys. The Browns are the best in the league at getting off the field on third down. They lead the league in opponent third down conversion rate with opponents converting just 29.13% of the time. They must try to wear down this defense early so that they do not come after the Texans later in the game.

2)  Be aggressive early. – It worked last week, and I think it will work this week if the Texans can get CJ Stroud in rhythm early. Last week he found his groove early in the game and it paid off as they pounced on the Colts in what became a very tight football game. If they get out to an early lead it is likely that the Browns will catch them, but in addition to having the crowd behind them, they will be able to really pressure this Cleveland offense. Also, despite Cleveland having such a good third down conversion rate on defense, they have the worst opponent fourth down conversion rate which means if Houston gets a fourth and short (past their own forty) they should not have to think twice about going for it.

1) Cleveland – Control the airways – Cleveland with Joe Flacco has the best passing game in the entire league. The Texans are one of the ten worst teams in the league in opponent passing yards and have given up the second most explosive plays in the league. What that means is that the Browns should test this Texans secondary in the first half and see what they can make of it. Joe Flacco has won a Super Bowl with a similar offense so all of this being considered, he just must make sure he finds his receivers.

2) DON’T BEAT YOURSELF. The way the Browns will lose this game is if they beat themselves. They turn the ball over more than any other team and are tied for second place for most penalized team in the league. Nothing matters more if you ask me, than discipline in the playoffs. That does not just mean penalties, but penalties are the biggest piece of discipline in football. The second biggest piece of discipline in football is ball security. If you cannot take care of the ball, you will lose the game, it is so simple and if you turn the ball over early on the road it will be a short sixty minutes and a long flight home. If you shoot yourself in the foot on the road, it is easy to find yourself in a whole.

              B’s Prediction: I trust both quarterbacks in pressure situations. I trust Joe Flacco more, but I still think even though he is a rookie, CJ Stroud will be dependable tomorrow. Given both teams are well rounded and scrappy, I think the question of who wins this game is all about the defense. My prediction is this game will be tight, but Cleveland’s defense will find a way to get the necessary stops when they need to, and Joe Flacco comes up clutch. Cleveland must take care of the ball, but under Joe Cool in crunch time, they will.

              Cleveland Browns 31 – Houston Texans 24

 Chiefs vs. Dolphins 8:00 on Peacock

The Kansas City Chiefs have been consistently good, not great but solid this season and so that as a fan of the game makes it easy to say what you think about them. The Dolphins have been anything but consistent and that is why it has been so tempting to sit here and say they have no chance of winning this game today. This is a game where the weather is going to have an enormous impact and it really could be the deciding factor. The temperature in Kansas City tonight will not reach higher than negative two degrees Fahrenheit and it will feel like below negative twenty degrees Fahrenheit. This will only help the Chiefs, but the Dolphins almost knocked off the Bills in Buffalo on this very weekend last year.

Keys to the Game:

         Miami Dolphins: 1) It is a new season. – I hate being that guy to use clichés like this, but it has to be said. Miami must have some form of amnesia when they come out under the bright lights tomorrow because now each game is a season. They came up so close without a quarterback against Buffalo last season in the cold which gives them a shot tonight. They will have to drown out the noise and criticism of them being inconsistent because all that matters right now is a win tonight and they are two games away from the Super Bowl.

              2) Show your electricity – The one word that comes to mind when I describe the Dolphins when they are firing on all cylinders is electric. The defense can be electric and the offense when hot can cause atomic explosions. This is a team that scored seventy in a game and thirty-plus twice against one of the leagues best defensive teams (the Jets). They are among the best teams in the league in takeaways and the Chiefs are among the worst. What this means is the Dolphins are going to have to win the turnover battle which should not be that hard considering the Chiefs are in the bottom five in turnover margin. The Chiefs defense has been very consistent all season long though, which means finding a spark will be hard. If the Dolphins can find sparks of electricity on defense, they will be able to connect the circuit to the offense which does not have to be a short one for them to win. Patience yet explosiveness will win this game for the Dolphins.

              1) TAKE CARE OF THE FOOTBALL – I cannot believe I am saying this about the Kansas City Chiefs. Make no mistake, this is a key to any football game but especially this one. The Dolphins have a secondary full of ball hawks, so Patrick Mahomes is going to have to resort to his playoff pat ways. As I alluded to earlier, they are one of the worst teams in the league in turnovers and can ill afford to turn the ball over against this potent Miami offense.

              2) Run the damn ball. – The one consistent factor on this Kansas City Chiefs offense has been their run game. Isiah Pacheco has balled out this season and through him and Clyde Edwards-Elaire Kansas City can find a way to keep Miami’s offense off the field. Controlling the clock as a game plan is the best friend of any team that’s mo is defense. Last week the Bills had three hundred sixty yards through the air so if Kansas City can get the run game going tonight, it will open the deep threat and play action game.

              B’s Prediction: This game should be low scoring considering how both teams are so good defensively and their offenses have struggled recently. I do not see the Chiefs losing at Arrowhead but I think the one team that could pull off the upset is the Dolphins. The Chiefs will need a magical performance from Patrick Mahomes and one I see them getting. This will be a fun game under the lights and one nobody should miss.

              Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Miami Dolphins 20