College Football Playoff Preview (The Rose Bowl)

As the year of 2020 comes to a close, the annual New Year's Six Bowl games which involve two rotating College Football Playoff Semifinal (CFP) games which this year are the Rose Bowl (normally played in Pasadena, California but moved due to COVID-19) in Arlington, Texas and the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, Louisiana.

This year's match-ups feature two teams that have had impressive years with very impressive victories and two others we have yet to see prove themselves. In the first game of the two, the Rose Bowl; The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been inconsistent but one of the four best teams in the country will face the most consistent team in the country by far and as it stands the best team in the country in Alabama (coming from an Auburn fan). In the Sugar Bowl we will get to see a rematch of the last year's Fiesta Bowl between a solid but not yet proven Ohio State team and a Clemson team that is firing on all cylinders and has proven itself. We have two intriguing match-ups this year so let's dig in.

The Rose Bowl: (1) Alabama vs. (4) Notre Dame at 4:00 P.M. on ESPN at AT&T Stadium

The first of our two CFP semifinals this year features an interesting match-up between two very different teams and two very different programs. Both teams score plenty of points each game with Notre Dame averaging 35 points a game and Alabama averaging almost 50 points a game. This is Alabama's best offense ever and maybe the best offense we will see in our lifetimes. They will have to face a Fighting Irish offense that is one of the best that I have seen from them in quite some time. This can be one hell of a fight or it can be a doozie depending on these keys the teams need to stick to to win this game.

Notre Dame's Four Keys to the Game

1) Run the damn ball. The reason why the Irish are not currently in New Orleans or facing a worse opponent, is because they could not run the ball last week against a great run defense in Clemson. They do not have to worry about the run defense they are facing anywhere near the stress they gave it in the run up to the ACC Championship game. They are currently averaging 217.6 yards rushing and if they can wear down the Alabama defense Ian Book's job becomes a whole lot easier. He has shown up when he needs but in big games, normally the run is what let's them down. The closest team to beating Bama other than Florida was Ole Miss who lost by fifteen but ran the ball better than any other opponent they have played. The score to that game was 63-48 so this team needs to stick to what it does best. Not running the ball well cost Florida the game last Saturday because their defense got worn down and had to play catch-up the rest of the way looking for big pass plays. Alabama's defense is giving up 107.6 yards rushing per game but this is due to the fact that teams don't think about running the ball against the Crimson Tide because they are too scared of the Tide's rolling offense. This is why you need a strong run game and clock management.

2) Clock Management The key inside of the key is clock management and you manage the clock mostly by running the ball and using screen plays. Against Alabama, I would say offense is the best defense because you do not want them on that field, so run that clock down as best you can. The Irish are already averaging 33 minutes of the ball a game and they are a run heavy team. That right there is the key and Bama beat Florida by knowing they weren't going to run the ball so they used up the clock having the ball for almost 35 minutes of that game. You have a good, solid offense so trust it. Don't make Ian Book do all the work but know he will show up for you when you need him.

3) Trust Ian Book. Yes I am sure we have all seen the tape of Ian Book the last time he played at AT&T Stadium and if not than don't watch it because he played awful in the last CFP Cotton Bowl. As the great Lee Corso says, "that was then and this is now." Book has had a very good season this year and has only thrown two interceptions all year while throwing for 15 touchdowns and 2,601 yards all season. Over his career he has played up to his competition with a 139.5 QB Rating against AP Top 25 opponents so trust that he will play well on Friday Afternoon. He lead them to a big victory over a top 20 team in North Carolina with 279 passing yards, 312 yards total, and one touchdown. On top of this he lead his team to a huge win over the number one team in the country in Clemson at the time with 310 passing yards, 377 yards total and one touchdown. He has shown up in two big games this year and with 219 passing yards and through 20 completions with 28 attempts against Clemson in the ACC Championship which means he wasn't to blame for the loss. They need to trust Ian Book and run that damn ball. If they do, they put the pressure on Mac Jones and their offense, something the offenses against Alabama normally face.

4) Make Alabama run the ball. Thus far Alabama has beaten teams with okay run games and an amazing passing game so if you are going to beat Alabama make sure they know to run that ball. How on Earth would they do that, you might ask but the answer comes in two games, them being Florida and Ole Miss in which the score was closer than all the other games and these were Alabama's best run games. Making them run the ball means putting as much pressure on Mac Jones as possible, in Alabama's last loss, obviously different circumstances but Jones had 335 passing yards with two pick sixes. This being said, if you can put enough pressure on Mac Jones which no team has since Auburn in 2019 you can force them to run the ball and make Najee Harris, your star running back beat you and did beat Florida with 189 yards rushing and two touchdowns. This is a risk worth taking because Mac Jones has yet to see a team that can pressure him and a team that forces the run game to beat them. You accomplish this pressure by eliminating the deep ball and getting to Jones even if it doesn't result in a sack.

Alabama's Three Keys to the Game

1) Make Ian Book beat you. Yes I am contradicting myself here but this is simply because I feel that for both teams it will come down to how Book and the Notre Dame run game operates against this Bama defense. This is a gamble for sure considering how well he has played against teams in the AP Top 25 but whenever Book has to beat you the team seems to fold. You do this by eliminating the run game. Alabama's run defense has been subpar so if they can force the receivers and offensive line of Notre Dame to step their game up they will have a better chance at controlling this game. This in addition, forces Head Coach Brian Kelley's hand and puts the pressure on him to make him feel like he's been down this road before. The big game the Irish won this year, Book beat Clemson but had a strong run game behind him, you take away that run game than he has to do it almost alone.

2) Don't make silly mistakes. This is for the secondary of Alabama's defense specifically. How a team has 72 yards in penalties and does not lose in a close game blows my mind but hopefully the secondary will be better prepared. Their woes with game management do not end in the secondary, they involve Mac Jones and him throwing the football away. He almost gave the Florida Gators a first class ticket to the College Football Playoff with a late interception and cost his team a shot at the College Football Playoff last year against Auburn with two pick-sixes. Despite this Mac Jones still is a Heisman candidate and has thrown for almost 4,000 yards total this year. They have beaten top tier teams such as Texas A&M and Florida while still making plenty of mistakes. If you can stay on your game and not make dumb mistakes such as forcing the ball in double coverage, blowing coverages or silly penalties this game will be over in the first half. That is a big ask from a young secondary but with their offense playing the way they have and a defense going up against an inconsistent offense it is attainable.

3) Score. Now this is something that is very obvious and something any team should do. This is the object of this game. That being said, Alabama can outlast Notre Dame in a shootout, just look at what they did last week. They can not get caught up in a trench fight because if they do that than they lose their threats and they do not have the defense they had four years ago to be in one of those fights. If they find a way to use Najee Harris on plays where Najee Harris isn't involved and continue to strike with those twenty+ yard plays which the Fighting Irish are susceptible to, this will be a quick one and one that will be a light show for the Tide.

Conclusion and Prediction

To summarize, the game plan for Alabama should simply be up-tempo everything. The game plan for Notre Dame needs to be to keep this game slow. I do not think the Irish would be able to keep up with Alabama although they did keep up with Clemson in South Bend earlier this year, nor do I think it would be pretty for Alabama if Notre Dame can make this game a slug fest or trench fight despite the fact that they can run the ball. If Notre Dame wins this game it will look like the game against Clemson which they won or Alabama's last loss. If Alabama wins this game it will be either a thirty+ point blowout or a ten to twenty point win.

The line is Alabama (-19.5) and the over/under is 65.5 points. I will take the over since we have a game involving this crazy good Alabama offense. I will also take it because this Alabama defense is not trustworthy and not even close to it on top of all this they are going up against a great Notre Dame defense. I will take Notre Dame (+19.5) jusging by their play against teams like Clemson and North Carolina. Despite this I believe Alabama will win by ten points, a score of 48-38.

Enjoy this one because it will be high scoring, just depends on what kind of offenses we will see. Don't forget to get the popcorn ready for the next one my friends between Clemson and Ohio State, that preview should becoming soon, so stay tuned for that. Lot's of New Year´s Day fun for college football fans.