College Football Playoff (Sugar Bowl)

As the year of 2020 comes to a close, the annual New Year's Six Bowl games which involve two rotating College Football Playoff Semifinal (CFP) games which this year are the Rose Bowl (normally played in Pasadena, California but moved due to COVID-19) in Arlington, Texas and the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, Louisiana.

This year's match-ups feature two teams that have had impressive years with very impressive victories and two others we have yet to see prove themselves. In the first game of the two, the Rose Bowl; The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been inconsistent but one of the four best teams in the country will face the most consistent team in the country by far and as it stands the best team in the country in Alabama (coming from an Auburn fan). In the Sugar Bowl we will get to see a rematch of the last year's Fiesta Bowl between a solid but not yet proven Ohio State team and a Clemson team that is firing on all cylinders and has proven itself. We have two intriguing match-ups this year so let's dig in.

Reminder: Winner of this game goes to the College Football Playoff National Championship on January 11, 2021

The Sugar Bowl: (2) The Clemson Tigers vs. (3) The Ohio State Buckeyes on January 1 at 8:00 P.M. on ESPN

The second of our two semifinals involve a rematch of arguably the best College Football Playoff Semifinal (since 2014) yet, last year. We have that to disect and we have a lot of games for Clemson whereas there are not that many games for us to look at for the Buckeyes. They have only played six games against two ranked opponents whereas Clemson has played two top ten opponents, one twice. This is not to say Ohio State should not be in the Sugar Bowl, they have earned the right to be there by winning every game on their schedule and winning their conference. That is all they can control and Clemson won their conference, taking care of business last weekend.

The questions for Ohio State go back to consistency and showing up in big games. The questions for Clemson come down to if anything their run defense. Ohio State has been lack luster against CFP Top 25 opponents and Clemson's run defense has let them down against Top 25 teams like Notre Dame. I think the questions are bigger for The Ohio State University but this game should still be a good one with Clemson having questions to answer of their own.

Ohio State's Keys to Winning the Game

1) Get to Third Down on Defense. By no measure is less than 50% a good conversion rate for any defense let alone a national title contender defense. Clemson ranks 25th in the country at third down conversions with a 46.71% rate and you might think this is because they don't face a lot of third downs but they face the fourth most in the entire country. On top of this, the Buckeyes rank fifth in the entire nation at 3rd down conversions. Ohio State is giving up 357 yards a game but if they can win the third down battle they can lower the amount of damage done by Heisman candidate quarterback Trevor Lawrence and star running back Travis Etienne. You do this by defending the long ball and having a QB spy of the RPO (Run Pass Option) since Lawrence is a dual-threat quarterback. The last time these two met, almost a year ago, Clemson faced 14 third downs and converted only five times. On top of this, Ohio State's defense is averaging 2.2 turnovers a game. If they get to third down, they can give their defense to come up, make a big stop and get their offense back on the field.

2) Time of Possession. This is key because the Buckeyes need to keep the all out of Lawrence's hands and put the ball in Justin Fields hands. Ohio State is averaging 33 minutes and 39 seconds in time of possession, Clemson is averaging 30 minutes and 51 seconds, which means that Ohio State has to use that to their advantage. I feel that this is one of the reasons they were in such great position to take that game with Clemson last season in the Fiesta Bowl. If you can limit Clemson's offense from doing maximum damage and strike when you get the chance on offense Ohio State can win this game and get revenge for last season.

3) Protect the Ball. This is probably the most important out of all the keys. It almost allways is but for Ohio State in this matchup particularly. If you are a Buckeye fan you are probably going to cringe when I say this but Ohio State had two interceptions versus the Tigers' none and cost the Buckeyes the chance at the National Championship. They did everything right except take care of the football. It is honestly a shame but this year they can hopefully right their wrongs by using their strong run game, a run game that is averaging 275.7 yards a game, to over power this Clemson defense. Ohio State had almost won this game a season ago thanks to rushing for almost two hundred yards, something that is very well attainable. They need to run the ball and have their quarterback Justin Fields make smart decisions when throwing the ball because when Ohio State protects the football they can compete with anybody in this country.

Clemson's Keys to the Game

1) Pressure Justin Fields. This worked a year ago and Ohio State's offense has has averaged almost a whole interception this year and both teams are averaging .5 fumbles. If Ohio State plays anything like they did two weeks ago against the Northwestern Wildcats, Clemson will need to capitalize on defense. Fields had two interceptions and kept Northwestern in the game late. Clemson's defense is averaging 2.0 turnovers a game 1.2 interceptions which should be wonderful news to the ears of Tiger fans but horrible news for Buckeye fans.

2) Throw that ball. Clemson has one of the best passing offenses in the country. It is the reason they could keep up with Notre Dame without Trevor Lawrence, blow (7 at the time) Miami out and win their conference against one of the best teams in the country in Notre Dame. They are averaging 343.8 yards a game which is insane for a team that averages 163.8 yards a game rushing. This means you have to air that ball out and considering a) Ohio State's defense is not the same as it was last year and b) they are giving up an average of 260.8 passing yards while only playing two teams with winning records you have to air that ball out. If they throw the ball to their amazing receivers, this will set up Travis Etienne and create a balanced offense that cannot be defended.

3) Convert on Second Down. What do I mean by this? Make it easier to convert on third down by giving yourself either third and shorts or just first downs on second down. You do this by having a balanced play call mixing a little bit of everything in there. While I feel that Alabama's pass game is the most explosive in the country I feel Clemson's is a) the most complete and b) as a whole more explosive considering they average north of 150 yards rushing and 350 yards passing . Yes, are averaging 46.71% on third down, but if you can create third and manageable this game's pressure all shifts back to Justin Fields and that should be the goal of Clemson's offense in New Orleans.

Conclusion and Prediction

The over/under for this game is 65 points and the line is Clemson (-7). For the reasons I have stated above I feel this will be a shootout but a close one and involve a lot of big moments for these defenses. In offensive shootouts defense normally wins the game so for that reason I will go with Clemson here. I will go with Clemson winning by four, scoring 45 to Ohio State's 41. This means I am taking the over and believe that if you are betting, your best bet would be Ohio State (+7).

Enjoy these games on New Year's Day and enjoy the New Year's Six games this weekend. Happy new year everybody and stay safe. Should be good games Today and there will be a CFP National Championship Preview to follow next week.

Prediction: (2) Clemson 45, (3) Ohio State 41. Over 65 points and Ohio State (+7)